Cardano Fear & Greed Index Methodology
The Cardano Fear & Greed Index is a deterministic 0–100 market sentiment score built specifically for Cardano rather than borrowed from a general crypto index.
Generic crypto fear and greed indices are dominated by Bitcoin. They tell you little about ADA momentum, Cardano trading volume, Cardano DeFi activity or how Cardano native tokens are behaving. This index keeps the wider market in view while giving Cardano its own weighted layer.
The live score, history and component breakdown are on the Cardano Fear & Greed Index page. This page documents how it is calculated.
Three Weighted Layers
- 60% Crypto Market Sentiment — the wider crypto market mood
- 20% Macroeconomic Environment — a risk gauge built on macro indicators
- 20% Cardano-Specific Sentiment — a weighted Cardano sub-index
The visible component numbers add up exactly to the final score. If a layer's data is unavailable, the remaining layer weights are renormalized so the score still sums correctly — a missing component is never treated as a zero reading.
Cardano Sub-Index
The Cardano layer is itself weighted, and renormalized whenever a component is unavailable:
- 40% ADA Momentum
- 20% Trading Volume
- 15% Volatility
- 10% Token Market Momentum
- 10% DeFi Activity
- 5% Stablecoin & On-chain Activity
How the components are measured
ADA momentum and trading volume are read from verified market data. Volatility uses 30-day realized volatility of ADA/USD daily log returns, annualized, scored against absolute regime anchors rather than a rolling percentile. Token market momentum measures how Cardano native tokens are moving relative to ADA. DeFi activity uses Cardano DeFi TVL on a completed-day basis, and the on-chain component covers stablecoin liquidity and activity.
The macro layer scores its indicators against absolute regime anchors describing how supportive or restrictive conditions are for risk assets.
Determinism and Versioning
The engine is deterministic: the same inputs always produce the same score. Each stored snapshot records the model version that produced it, and stored history is never rewritten when the model changes. Comparable model versions share one continuous history series, so trend charts, yesterday's value and 7-day and 30-day averages remain honest across revisions.
History and Trend
Scores are snapshotted on a schedule, which makes historical Fear & Greed and trend comparison possible. You can also ask about the current reading and its drivers in Merkle.